Oil just crossed $100 a barrel. The S&P 500 is at its lowest close of 2026. Everything is red. There is so much uncertainty. AI taking over jobs. Never ending wars etc etc.
But, let us just focus on the historical patterns to get some idea about where we are right now. I went back and looked at every major oil crisis since 1973. Analyzed the data. Tracked which stocks actually went up during each one.
Well! It turns out the same 7 stocks surge every single time. The tickers change slightly but the pattern is identical.
The pattern is simple: when oil spikes, the same 7 types of stocks go up. Every. Single. Time. Here they are.
The 7 Stocks (and Why They Always Win)
1. ExxonMobil (XOM)
The king of oil crises. In 1973, Exxon replaced GM as the world's largest corporation by revenue after the Arab embargo. In 2022, XOM returned +87.4% while the S&P 500 fell 19%. In the current 2026 Iran crisis, XOM is up +11% and climbing. When oil goes up, Exxon prints money. It's that simple.
2. Chevron (CVX)
Exxon's partner in crime. CVX returned +58.5% in 2022 during the Russia-Ukraine war. A 50/50 basket of Exxon and Chevron bought at the start of the 1970s and held through 1980 returned +236% vs. the S&P 500's +47%. Up +11% again in the current crisis.
3. ConocoPhillips (COP)
The pure-play exploration company. No refining, no chemicals, just finding and pumping oil. When crude spikes, COP captures more of the upside. Returned +71.7% in 2022. More volatile than XOM/CVX but bigger moves.
4. Schlumberger/SLB (SLB)
The pick-and-shovel play. SLB provides the technology and services that oil companies need to drill. When oil is high, everyone drills more, and SLB gets paid. Returned +81.2% in 2022. Up with a record $32.4B backlog in 2026.
5. Halliburton (HAL)
SLB's biggest competitor in oilfield services. Same thesis: high oil = more drilling = more revenue. Returned +74.5% in 2022. The OIH (Oil Services ETF) is up +39% YTD in 2026.
6. Lockheed Martin (LMT)
Every oil crisis is a geopolitical crisis, and every geopolitical crisis means more defense spending. LMT returned +40.5% in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine. Up +14.9% YTD in 2026 as the Iran war escalates. Defense stocks have been a crisis winner for 50 years straight.
7. Gold (GLD or Physical)
The original crisis hedge. Gold surged +70% in the 1973 embargo. It went up +278% during the 1979 Iranian Revolution. In 2026, gold has hit $5,400/oz (up 22% YTD). JP Morgan's target is $6,300 by year-end. One exception: gold underperformed in 2022 because rising interest rates competed with it. But when rates are flat or falling, gold is the ultimate oil crisis play.
The Scorecard: 6 Crises, Same Winners
| Category |
1973 |
1979 |
1990 |
2022 |
2026 |
| Oil Majors |
+40-85% |
+236% |
Top sector |
+58-87% |
+11% |
| Oil Services |
N/A |
N/A |
Up |
+35-81% |
+34-39% |
| Defense |
Up |
Up |
Up |
+20-43% |
+5-15% |
| Gold |
+70% |
+278% |
+12% |
-0.8% |
+22% |
| S&P 500 |
-44% |
-10% |
-16% |
-19% |
TBD |
Notice the pattern? Oil majors and oil services win in every single crisis. Defense wins every time there's a geopolitical trigger (which is every time). Gold wins 4 out of 5. And the S&P 500 gets crushed every time.
The 2008 oil spike is the one exception worth studying. Oil hit $147/barrel but energy stocks disconnected above $100. The market correctly sensed the spike was unsustainable. By year-end, energy stocks gave back most gains. The lesson: watch for demand destruction signals. If the economy is breaking, even oil stocks won't save you.
The 2026 Crisis: Where Are We Now?
Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz. That's 20% of global oil supply disrupted. Brent crude surged from $70 to over $126 at peak. The S&P 500 just hit its 2026 low.
Here's what's working right now:
OIH
Oil Services ETF
+39%
NOC
Northrop Grumman
+11%
And the surprising loser? Renewable energy stocks. Higher oil = higher inflation = less chance of rate cuts = growth stocks get hammered. Clean energy is down despite the energy crisis.
How to Use This
If you think the crisis will escalate: Oil majors (XOM, CVX, COP) and oil services (SLB, HAL) have the strongest historical track record. They win in 5 out of 6 crises.
If you want a hedge: Gold (GLD) works best when interest rates aren't rising. At $5,400/oz with a $6,300 target, the run may not be over.
If you think it resolves quickly: Look at the 1990 Gulf War playbook. Oil crashed 33% the day Desert Storm began. The S&P 500 jumped 3.7% that same day and rallied 26-29% that year. Resolution = buy the broad market.
The Bottom Line
Oil crises are not random. The same stocks win every time because the same forces are at play: supply disruption drives oil up, geopolitical tension drives defense up, and fear drives gold up. The only question is how long the crisis lasts. History says: position for the pattern, not the prediction.